Plenitrade

Rules from a short list of measurements

The method is multiple regression: one equation that estimates how several measurements, together, lined up with the price change over the next five sessions. The measurements were written down first. The last stretch of history, 2026-04-07 through 2026-09-25, was not used to fit the equation. That later stretch is the only money test.

A neural net was set aside. On a few years of daily prices it has enough spare flexibility to memorize accidents, and it does not hand back a sentence you can audit. The useful test is the same either way: does the rule still work on a later period, after the cost of getting in and out. The simpler equation is the one that can fail in public.

There are 4 equations. One uses only price measurements. One uses only whether a contract or an earnings filing arrived. One puts those together. A fourth scores the wording of the Form 8-K itself. Fit period: 1800 non-overlapping rows. Later period: 575 rows. The share of later price moves lined up with the equation, in the fit period, is R². The earlier price equation’s R² was about 0.6%, which means almost all of the move was left unexplained. Paper budget for each traded rule: $250,000. Holding the same stocks over the later period, with the same kind of spread, finished at $292,909.

What the wording scores mean

How a rule gets kept

Price measurements only

Recent return, a longer recent return, jumpiness, and unusual dollar volume.

In the fit period the equation lined up with 0.6% of the variation across 1800 rows. That percentage is a description of the past, not a forecast.

MeasurementCoefficientRough size
baseline later return, when every measurement is at its usual level+0.24 pp+1.4
return over the prior 5 sessions+0.08 pp+0.4
return over the prior 20 sessions-0.45 pp-2.2
jumpiness over the prior 20 sessions+0.27 pp+1.5
today's dollar volume versus its recent usual level-0.31 pp-1.8

Not kept. Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $239,478 (-10,522). 92 entries. -0.12% average trade after the spread. Holding the same stocks finished at $292,909. This book follows the measurements, not the ordinary drift: it buys up to four names when those measurements point to a return above the fit-period baseline.

Filing measurements only

A contract or closed deal in the last three sessions, and an earnings filing in that same window.

In the fit period the equation lined up with 0.0% of the variation across 1800 rows. That percentage is a description of the past, not a forecast.

MeasurementCoefficientRough size
baseline later return, when every measurement is at its usual level+0.24 pp+1.4
a contract or closed deal filed in the last 3 sessions-0.08 pp-0.5
an earnings filing in the last 3 sessions+0.01 pp+0.0

No single measurement cleared the rough-size bar of 2, so none became its own rule.

Not kept. Nothing in the fit was large enough to call the later finish a rule. Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $295,750 (+45,750). 92 entries. +0.80% average trade after the spread. Holding the same stocks finished at $292,909. This book follows the measurements, not the ordinary drift: it buys up to four names when those measurements point to a return above the fit-period baseline.

Price and filings together

The multiple regression: all six measurements in one equation.

In the fit period the equation lined up with 0.6% of the variation across 1800 rows. That percentage is a description of the past, not a forecast.

MeasurementCoefficientRough size
baseline later return, when every measurement is at its usual level+0.24 pp+1.4
return over the prior 5 sessions+0.09 pp+0.5
return over the prior 20 sessions-0.45 pp-2.2
jumpiness over the prior 20 sessions+0.26 pp+1.5
today's dollar volume versus its recent usual level-0.34 pp-1.8
a contract or closed deal filed in the last 3 sessions-0.10 pp-0.5
an earnings filing in the last 3 sessions+0.08 pp+0.4

Not kept. Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $275,462 (+25,462). 92 entries. +0.50% average trade after the spread. Holding the same stocks finished at $292,909. This book follows the measurements, not the ordinary drift: it buys up to four names when those measurements point to a return above the fit-period baseline.

Wording of the filing

Opinion, agreement versus dispute, certainty, hard numbers, and promotional adjectives, scored from the company’s own 8-K with fixed word lists. This equation was added after the first three had already been scored on the same later period, so a win here is weaker evidence. Outside magazines and video transcripts are not in this test: they are not stored with a reliable clock.

In the fit period the equation lined up with 0.4% of the variation across 1800 rows. That percentage is a description of the past, not a forecast.

MeasurementCoefficientRough size
baseline later return, when every measurement is at its usual level+0.24 pp+1.4
a filing with enough text to score in the last 3 sessions-1.65 pp-1.6
how much the filing judges, rather than only reports+0.29 pp+1.5
consensus language minus dispute language in the filing+0.05 pp+0.2
definite language minus hedging in the filing-0.02 pp-0.1
how many hard numbers the filing uses+0.10 pp+0.2
how promotional the filing’s adjectives are+1.60 pp+2.2

Kept as a paper research result. Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $489,759 (+239,759). 29 entries. +3.95% average trade after the spread. Holding the same stocks finished at $292,909. This book follows the measurements, not the ordinary drift: it buys up to four names when those measurements point to a return above the fit-period baseline.

Industry attention

Each company’s words are the six most repeated content words in the annual report filed before 2025-09-25. Attention is how often people read the matching English Wikipedia pages in the prior 28 days, compared with the 84 days before that. The news archive GDELT refused the connection from this network, so this is public reading interest, not a trade magazine. The page chosen for each word is the first Wikipedia hit, which is sometimes the wrong topic. The later period is 2025-09-25 through 2026-09-25. The word list was saved before this score.

In the earlier year the equation lined up with 2.8% of the variation across 264 rows. A one-notch rise in industry attention lined up with a -2.54 percentage point change in the next 20-session return (rough size -2.7).

Kept as a paper research result against the S&P 500. Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $353,497 (+103,497) across 48 entries. The S&P 500, with a one-basis-point spread, finished at $296,191 (+18.5%).

Trade-publication attention

This repeats the industry-attention equation with a different sensor. The words are still the six content words from the annual report filed before 2025-09-25. Attention is how many articles in that company's three trade publications used one of those words in the web address over the prior 28 days, compared with the 84 days before that. The outlet names were written on 2026-09-27, after this year had already been scored, so this is a second look. Not in use. The rule in use remains the 200-session trend on the S&P. The later period is 2025-09-25 through 2026-09-25.

In the earlier year the equation lined up with 0.2% of the variation across 247 rows. A one-notch rise in publication attention lined up with a +0.64 percentage point change in the next 20-session return (rough size +0.7). That rough size is below the bar of 2, so this measurement is not written down as a rule. A paper profit on a year we have already seen does not clear that bar.

Later period, $250,000 paper: finished at $348,125 (+98,125) across 46 entries. The S&P 500 finished at $296,191 (+18.5%).

Outlets

Companies

Trend and three leaders

The score is 2025-09-25 through 2026-09-25. The trend rule has no fitted number other than the 200 sessions named in advance. The leaders were named in advance: high-yield credit, long Treasury prices, and the dollar. Their prior-month changes are the only inputs. The target is the next month of the S&P.

The 200-session trend held the S&P on 240 of 252 sessions and switched 3 times. Cash earned nothing. It finished at $288,735 (+15.5%). Buying and holding the S&P over the same days finished at $296,191 (+18.5%).

The fit used 10 months and, with three inputs, lined up with 60.5% of those next-month S&P moves. That is a crowded fit on a short sample, so the rough-size numbers are loose.

LeaderCoefficientRough size
baseline next-month S&P return+1.23 pp+1.5
high-yield credit, prior month+1.71 pp+1.7
long Treasuries, prior month-3.16 pp-3.0
the dollar, prior month-1.28 pp-1.4

Not kept. On the 11 later months, holding the S&P only when the leaders pointed above the baseline finished at $292,244 (5 months invested).

Line and threshold

A straight line is fit to the last 63 closes. Buy the next morning when the close is that many residual standard deviations below the line. Sell the next morning when it is the same distance above the line. The candidates were 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5. Each series kept the value that made the most money before 2025-09-25. The score is 2025-09-25 through 2026-09-25.

For the S&P, the earlier year selected 2.5 (1 trades, finishing at $297,912). Not kept. The threshold that won the earlier year finished behind holding the S&P. The later year finished at $276,611 (+10.6%, 4 trades, long 160 of 252 sessions). Holding the S&P finished at $296,191 (+18.5%).

On the individual names, 12 of 25 beat holding that same name. The threshold column is the one chosen on the earlier year.

NameThresholdTradesRuleHold
TCMD2.03$200,201$409,923
DBI1.56$259,187$421,486
SIBN2.52$195,610$329,430
ACU2.02$265,563$384,589
JILL0.510$236,314$355,080
WEYS2.52$349,339$435,645
CNXN2.51$285,906$365,093
EBF1.55$252,409$317,525
IRMD0.510$262,101$312,043
MCFT1.55$202,827$241,432
NTGR2.53$160,635$194,516
RCKY2.04$385,401$392,419
JOUT1.55$283,120$285,022
CLFD2.52$230,509$230,467
KRNT2.51$273,206$270,543
TWI2.52$240,730$235,648
HDSN0.57$138,811$130,447
INGN2.03$175,127$159,989
EVI2.06$190,072$152,762
KIDS1.011$339,379$301,230
HVT2.52$372,340$329,434
MPAA1.07$202,416$154,695
LAKE2.05$229,540$177,771
ONEW1.59$218,065$159,052
RCMT2.56$493,821$371,413

Words

Climate models earn some skill because they include physical laws and because they are scored on years they were not fit to. This page keeps the second habit. It does not have the first. A clean price history makes false patterns easier to see and easier to believe. The home page is at /. The project summary is at /summary. The day-by-day blotter is at /desk. Three trade titles per company are listed at /publications.